Delaware
(State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation)
|
001-32347
(Commission File Number)
|
No. 88-0326081
(I.R.S. Employer Identification No.)
|
6225 Neil Road, Reno, Nevada
(Address of Principal Executive Offices)
|
89511-1136
(Zip Code)
|
o
|
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
|
|
o
|
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
|
|
o
|
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
|
|
o
|
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
|
|
Exhibit 99.1
|
North Brawley Power Plant Asset Impairment Analysis, dated March 2013, prepared by Giza Singer Even.
|
|
Exhibit 99.2
|
Jersey Valley Power Plant Asset Impairment Analysis, dated March 2013, prepared by Giza Singer Even.
|
|
Exhibit 99.1
|
North Brawley Power Plant Asset Impairment Analysis, dated March 2013, prepared by Giza Singer Even.
|
|
Exhibit 99.2
|
Jersey Valley Power Plant Asset Impairment Analysis, dated March 2013, prepared by Giza Singer Even.
|
ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
|
|||
By:
|
/
s/ Yehudit Bronicki
|
||
Name:
Yehudit Bronicki
|
|||
Title:
Chief Executive Officer
|
Exhibit
Number
|
Description of Exhibit
|
|
99.1
|
North Brawley Power Plant Asset Impairment Analysis, dated March 2013, prepared by Giza Singer Even.
|
|
99.2
|
Jersey Valley Power Plant Asset Impairment Analysis, dated March 2013, prepared by Giza Singer Even.
|
1.1
|
General
|
1.2
|
Reliance on Information Received from the Company
|
1.3
|
Forward-looking Information
|
1.4
|
Limitations in the Application of the Report
|
1.5
|
Personal and Financial Relationship with the Company
|
Subject of the Opinion
|
Date
of the Opinion
|
Relevant accounting Standard
|
Work Method
|
Valuation Results
($ 000's)
|
WACC
|
|||||||||
North Brawley
|
December 2010
|
IFRS
|
DCF
|
139,009 | 8 | % | ||||||||
North Brawley
|
December 2011
|
IFRS
|
DCF
|
156,191 | 8 | % | ||||||||
North Brawley
|
June 2012
|
IFRS
|
DCF
|
140,744 | 8 | % |
1.6
|
Reference to the Report
|
1.7
|
Limitation of Liability
|
1.8
|
Sources of Information and Valuation Procedures
|
|
§
|
Discussions with the Company's management and with D&P, as follows:
|
|
·
|
Mrs. Yehudit Bronicki, CEO and Director, Ormat Industries Ltd. and Ormat Technologies, Inc.
|
|
·
|
Mr. Joseph Tenne, CFO, Ormat Industries Ltd. and Ormat Technologies, Inc.
|
|
·
|
Mr. Amit Gorka, V.P Corporate Controller, Ormat Industries Ltd. and Ormat Technologies, Inc.
|
|
·
|
Mr. Eyal Hen, Director of Finance, Ormat Technologies Inc.
|
|
·
|
Mr. Joseph Omoworare, Valuation Services Managing Director, Duff & Phelps
|
|
§
|
Historical cost and financial statement information provided by Ormat Technologies, Inc.
|
|
§
|
Ormat Technologies, Inc. Management’s financial projections for North Brawley under the current generation capacity forecastCompany
|
|
§
|
Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”) related to North Brawley
|
|
§
|
Documentation provided by management with regards to amendments to the current PPA with Southern California Edison Company ( "SCE")
|
|
§
|
North Brawley plant basis summary, provided by management, as of the valuation date
|
|
§
|
Other publicly available information from sources, but not limited to, Capital IQ, and SNL, deemed relevant to preparation of this Report
|
|
§
|
Financial models, analyses and North Brawley Asset Impairment Analysis Report prepared by D&P
|
|
·
|
Analysis of conditions in, and the economic outlook for, the geothermal / renewable energy sector
|
|
·
|
Analysis of general market data, including economic, governmental, and environmental forces
|
|
·
|
Analysis of the assumptions and estimates made by the Company's management pertaining to current generation capacity;
|
|
·
|
Discussions concerning the history, current state, and future operations of the subject asset;
|
|
·
|
Discussions with the Company's management to obtain an explanation and clarification of data provided
|
|
·
|
Review of the documentation provided by the Company's management with regards to amendments to the current Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”) with Southern California Edison (SCE)
|
|
·
|
Review of certain long term contract pricing term sheets
|
|
·
|
Review of certain correspondences with SCE pertaining to the geothermal facility;
|
|
·
|
Review of the latest Ormat press release on the status of Brawley, provided by Management;
|
|
·
|
Analysis of financial and operating projections including revenues, operating margins (e.g., earnings before interest and taxes), working capital investments, production tax credits, and capital expenditures based on the subject asset’s historical operating results, industry results and expectations, and management representations as it relates to the subject asset
|
|
·
|
Estimation of an appropriate Weighted Average Cost of Capital (“WACC”)
|
1.9
|
The Accounting Standard
|
|
1.
|
The Value in Use of the asset is the estimate of the present value of future cash flows to be derived from use and disposal of the asset at the end of its useful life.
|
|
2.
|
Fair value less costs to sell is the amount obtainable from the sale of an asset or Cash-Generating Unit in an arm’s length transaction between knowledgeable, willing parties, less the costs of disposal.
|
1.10
|
Details on the Valuating Company
|
2.1
|
Description of the Company and Subject Assets
|
|
·
|
Inability to circulate the design flow due to injection field limitations, and lack of available production wells
|
|
·
|
High operating costs due to the cost of maintaining filtration on the injection wells and cleanouts of the injection wells
|
|
·
|
High well field operating costs due to early failures of the production pumps
|
|
·
|
Additional capital expenditure investment in pursuit of solutions to the injection and the production issues, including filtration and separation systems, drilling or modifying the injection wells, drilling production wells, adding injection pumps and constructing pipelines for the new wells
|
2.2
|
Description of the Valuation Methodology
|
|
·
|
Determining operational characteristics under the Plant's forecasted generation capacity (27MW)
|
|
·
|
Forecasting revenues and variable operating costs as applicable, including energy prices for the electric output
|
|
·
|
Forecasting fixed expenses and capital expenditures as applicable
|
|
·
|
Performing a DCF analysis based on the Plant's expected generation capacity (27MW)
|
2.3
|
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
|
2.4
|
Valuation Conclusion
|
2.4.1
|
Fair Value
|
2.4.2
|
Disposal Costs
|
2.4.3
|
Conclusion
|
2.4.4
|
Sensitivity Analysis
|
% Change in WACC
|
-1% | -0.5% | 8% | +0.50% | +1% | |||||||||||||||
Fair value (less costs to sell)
|
34.7 | 33.1 | 31.6 | 30.2 | 28.9 |
3.1
|
Ormat Technologies, Inc.
|
3.2
|
Description of Subject Assets
|
|
·
|
Inability to circulate the design flow due to injection field limitations, and lack of available production wells
|
|
·
|
High operating costs due to the cost of maintaining filtration on the injection wells and cleanouts of the injection wells
|
|
·
|
High well field operating costs due to early failures of the production pumps
|
|
·
|
Additional capital expenditure investment in pursuit of solutions to the injection and the production issues, including filtration and separation systems, drilling or modifying the injection wells, drilling production wells, adding injection pumps and constructing pipelines for the new wells
|
4.1
|
General Economic Outlook
|
4.1.1
|
Introduction
|
4.1.2
|
Economic Growth
|
4.1.3
|
Inflation
|
4.1.4
|
Unemployment
|
4.1.5
|
Interest Rate Environment and Global Economic Trends
|
4.2
|
U.S. Geothermal Market Update
|
4.2.1
|
Introduction
|
4.2.2
|
Industry Growth Trends and Future Development
|
4.2.3
|
Federal Incentives and Drivers of Development
|
4.2.4
|
Industry Outlook
|
5.1
|
Valuation methodology
|
5.1.1
|
General
|
5.2
|
Application of the Income Approach in this analysis
|
|
·
|
Determining operational characteristics of the asset
|
|
·
|
Forecasting revenues and variable operating costs as applicable, including energy prices for the electric output
|
|
·
|
Forecasting fixed expenses and capital expenditures
|
|
·
|
Performing a DCF analysis to arrive at the expected value
|
5.3
|
North Brawley Valuation
|
5.3.1
|
Operating Characteristics
|
5.3.2
|
Production and Revenues
|
5.3.3
|
Production Penalties
|
5.3.4
|
Operating Costs
|
5.3.5
|
Capital Expenditures
|
5.3.6
|
Depreciation
|
5.3.7
|
Tax
|
5.3.8
|
Working Capital
|
5.4
|
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital (WACC)
|
5.4.1
|
General
|
5.4.2
|
Cost of Equity
|
Risk Free Rate (nominal)
|
2.95 | % | 1 | |||||
Market Risk Premium
|
6.0 | % | 2 | |||||
Re-levered Beta
|
1.21 | 3 | ||||||
Risk Premium
|
1.88 | % | 4 | |||||
Cost of Equity
|
12.06 | % |
|
1.
|
The nominal rate of return on a US government bond
3
for a 30-year period.
|
|
2.
|
Average difference between the annual real return on stock indexes and the risk free interest in the U.S
4
.
|
|
3.
|
To determine the Company's beta, we examined a group of companies in the same field of business. We chose companies with similar features as the Company. Following is a list of peer companies used for calculating the beta
5
:
|
Company
|
Unlevered Beta
|
D/V | ||||||
Calpine Corp.
|
0.74 | 53 | % | |||||
Ram Power Corp.
|
0.44 | 75 | % | |||||
US Geothermal Inc.
|
0.48 | 76 | % | |||||
Alterra power corp.
|
0.86 | 53 | % | |||||
Ormat Technologies Inc.
|
0.70 | 52 | % | |||||
Median
|
0.70 | 53 | % |
|
4.
|
The specific risk premium, relevant to the size of the Company in market of operation
6
.
|
4
Source: Study published by Damodaran (as of December 2012) -
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar
|
5.4.3
|
WACC - Summary
|
Parameter
|
Value
|
Comments
|
||
Risk-free Rate
|
2.95%
|
|||
Relevered Beta
|
6.00%
|
1
|
||
Market Risk Premium
|
1.21
|
|||
Specific Risk Premium
|
1.88%
|
|||
The Cost of Equity
|
12.06%
|
|||
Cost of Debt
|
6.80%
|
2
|
||
Tax rate
|
40.70%
|
|||
D/V
|
53%
|
3
|
||
WACC
|
7.70%
|
4
|
|
1.
|
Re-levered beta based on the assumed D/E ratio and tax rate
|
|
2.
|
Based on the coupon rate set on the Company's bonds.
|
|
3.
|
The median Debt-to-Value ratio of comparable companies
|
|
4.
|
The WACC was rounded to 8%
|
5.5
|
Valuation Conclusion
|
5.5.1
|
Fair Value
|
5.5.2
|
Disposal Costs
|
5.5.3
|
Conclusion
|
5.5.4
|
Sensitivity Analysis
|
% Change in WACC
|
-1% | -0.5% | 8% | +0.50% | +1% | |||||||||||||||
Fair value (less costs to sell)
|
34.7 | 33.1 | 31.6 | 30.2 | 28.9 |
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
2024
|
2025
|
2026
|
2027
|
2028
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net Revenue
|
18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | 18,480 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total Operating Costs
|
16,190 | 12,673 | 12,848 | 13,073 | 13,279 | 13,490 | 13,745 | 13,980 | 14,221 | 14,504 | 14,757 | 15,017 | 15,322 | 15,595 | 15,877 | 16,206 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Depreciation
|
6,381 | 10,210 | 6,738 | 4,655 | 4,263 | 2,840 | 1,392 | 800 | 1,063 | 1,477 | 849 | 1,129 | 1,567 | 901 | 1,198 | 1,663 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EBIT
|
(4,091 | ) | (4,403 | ) | (1,106 | ) | 753 | 939 | 2,151 | 3,343 | 3,701 | 3,196 | 2,499 | 2,875 | 2,335 | 1,591 | 1,985 | 1,406 | 611 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Income Tax
|
(1,667 | ) | (1,794 | ) | (451 | ) | 307 | 382 | 876 | 1,362 | 1,508 | 1,302 | 1,018 | 1,171 | 951 | 648 | 809 | 573 | 249 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
After Tax Operating Profit
|
(2,424 | ) | (2,609 | ) | (655 | ) | 446 | 556 | 1,275 | 1,981 | 2,193 | 1,894 | 1,481 | 1,704 | 1,383 | 943 | 1,176 | 833 | 362 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: (Increase/ Decrease in Working Capital)
|
— | (289 | ) | 14 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 25 | 22 | 23 | 27 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Less: CapEx
|
— | — | (3,060 | ) | — | — | (3,248 | ) | — | — | (3,447 | ) | — | — | (3,657 | ) | — | — | (3,881 | ) | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: Depreciation
|
6,381 | 10,210 | 6,738 | 4,655 | 4,263 | 2,840 | 1,392 | 800 | 1,063 | 1,477 | 849 | 1,129 | 1,567 | 901 | 1,198 | 1,663 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow from Operations
|
3,957 | 7,312 | 3,037 | 5,119 | 4,836 | 884 | 3,394 | 3,012 | (470 | ) | 2,981 | 2,573 | (1,124 | ) | 2,535 | 2,099 | (1,827 | ) | 2,052 |
2029
|
2030
|
2031
|
2032
|
2033
|
2034
|
2035
|
2036
|
2037
|
2038
|
2039
|
2040
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net Revenue
|
18,480 | 18,480 | 22,870 | 23,099 | 23,330 | 23,563 | 23,799 | 24,037 | 24,277 | 24,520 | 24,765 | 25,013 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total Operating Costs
|
16,502 | 16,808 | 17,325 | 17,630 | 17,942 | 18,306 | 18,628 | 18,960 | 19,345 | 19,687 | 20,038 | 20,447 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Depreciation
|
956 | 1,271 | 1,765 | 1,014 | 1,349 | 1,873 | 1,076 | 1,431 | 1,988 | 1,142 | 1,519 | 4,740 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EBIT
|
1,022 | 401 | 3,780 | 4,455 | 4,039 | 3,384 | 4,094 | 3,646 | 2,944 | 3,690 | 3,208 | (174 | ) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Income Tax
|
417 | 164 | 1,540 | 1,815 | 1,646 | 1,379 | 1,668 | 1,486 | 1,200 | 1,504 | 1,307 | (71 | ) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
After Tax Operating Profit
|
606 | 238 | 2,240 | 2,640 | 2,393 | 2,005 | 2,426 | 2,160 | 1,745 | 2,187 | 1,901 | (103 | ) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: (Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital
|
24 | 25 | (279 | ) | 6 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 389 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Less: CapEx
|
— | (4,119 | ) | — | — | (4,371 | ) | — | — | (4,639 | ) | — | — | (4,922 | ) | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: Depreciation
|
956 | 1,271 | 1,765 | 1,014 | 1,349 | 1,873 | 1,076 | 1,431 | 1,988 | 1,142 | 1,519 | 4,740 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow from Operations
|
1,586 | (2,585 | ) | 3,725 | 3,660 | (622 | ) | 3,889 | 3,509 | (1,039 | ) | 3,744 | 3,337 | (1,494 | ) | 5,025 |
1.1
|
General
|
1.2
|
Reliance on Information Received from the Company
|
1.3
|
Forward-looking Information
|
1.4
|
Limitations in the Application of the Report
|
1.5
|
Personal and Financial Relationship with the Company
|
1.6
|
Reference to the Report
|
1.7
|
Limitation of Liability
|
1.8
|
Sources of Information and Valuation Procedures
|
§
|
Discussions with the Company's management and with D&P, as follows:
|
·
|
Mrs. Yehudit Bronicki, CEO and Director, Ormat Industries Ltd. and Ormat Technologies, Inc.
|
·
|
Mr. Joseph Tenne, CFO, Ormat Industries Ltd. and Ormat Technologies, Inc.
|
·
|
Mr. Amit Gorka, V.P Corporate Controller, Ormat Industries Ltd. and Ormat Technologies, Inc.
|
·
|
Mr. Eyal Hen, Director of Finance, Ormat Technologies Inc.
|
·
|
Mr. Joseph Omoworare, Valuation Services Managing Director, Duff & Phelps
|
§
|
Historical cost and financial statement information provided by Ormat Technologies, Inc.
|
§
|
Ormat Technologies, Inc. Management’s financial projections for the Subject Assets for the Capacity Cases;
|
§
|
Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”) related to Jersey Valley
|
§
|
Documentation provided by Management in regards to Amendments to the current PPA with NPC
|
§
|
Jersey Valley plant basis summary and carrying value, provided by Management, as of the Valuation Date
|
§
|
Other publicly available information from sources, but not limited to, Capital IQ, and SNL, deemed relevant to preparation of this Report
|
§
|
Financial models, analyses and Jersey Valley Asset Impairment Analysis Report prepared by D&P
|
·
|
Analysis of conditions in, and the economic outlook for, the geothermal / renewable energy sector
|
·
|
Analysis of general market data, including economic, governmental, and environmental forces
|
·
|
Analysis of the assumptions and estimates made by the Company's management pertaining to the two Capacity Cases;
|
·
|
Discussions concerning the history, current state, and future operations of the Subject Asset;
|
·
|
Discussions with the Company's management to obtain an explanation and clarification of data provided
|
·
|
Review of the documentation provided by the Company's management with regards to amendments to the current Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”) with NPC
|
·
|
Review of certain Operating Reports for the geothermal facility
;
|
·
|
Review of the latest GeothermEx memo on the status of Jersey Valley, as of the Valuation Date;
|
·
|
Analysis of financial and operating projections including revenues, operating margins (e.g., earnings before interest and taxes), working capital investments, production tax credits, and capital expenditures based on the Subject Asset’s historical operating results, industry results and expectations, and management representations as it relates to the Subject Assets for the two capacity generation cases
|
·
|
Estimation of an appropriate Weighted Average Cost of Capital (“WACC”)
|
1.9
|
The Accounting Standard
|
1.
|
The Value in Use of the asset is the estimate of the present value of future cash flows to be derived from use and disposal of the asset at the end of its useful life.
|
2.
|
Fair value less costs to sell is the amount obtainable from the sale of an asset or Cash-Generating Unit in an arm’s length transaction between knowledgeable, willing parties, less the costs of disposal.
|
1.10
|
Details of the Valuating Company
|
2.1
|
Description of the Company and Subject Assets
|
|
·
|
Probability of 10MW Case: 70%;
|
|
·
|
Probability of 12MW Case: 30%.
|
|
·
|
Total nameplate capacity: 22.5 MW
;
|
|
·
|
Total gross output capacity: 19.0 MW
;
|
|
·
|
Total capacity net of Station Usage: 12.0 MW
.
|
2.2
|
Description of the Valuation Methodology
|
|
·
|
Probability of 10MW Case: 70%;
|
|
·
|
Probability of 12MW Case: 30%.
|
·
|
Determining operational characteristics of the Plant under two generation capacities (10MW and 12MW)
|
·
|
Forecasting revenues and variable operating costs as applicable, including energy prices for the electric output
|
·
|
Forecasting fixed expenses and capital expenditures as applicable for each case
|
·
|
Performing a DCF analysis for each generation case. The DCF for each generation case was then assigned a probability, based on the Company's estimates of its probability to materialize. The Fair Value was then calculated by summing the total weighted expected value of both cases.
|
2.3
|
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
|
2.4
|
Valuation Conclusion
|
2.4.1
|
Fair Value
|
Case
|
Probability weighted Valuation
|
Case Weighting
|
Expected Value
|
|||||||||
10MW Case
|
27,882 | 70.0 | % | 19,518 | ||||||||
12MW Case
|
39,258 | 30.0 | % | 11,777 | ||||||||
Total
|
100.0 | % | 31,295 |
2.4.2
|
Disposal Costs
|
2.4.3
|
Conclusion
|
2.4.4
|
Sensitivity Analysis
|
% Change in WACC
|
-1%
|
-0.5%
|
8%
|
+0.50%
|
+1%
|
|||||||||||||||
Fair Value (less costs to sell)
|
31.3 | 29.5 | 27.9 | 26.4 | 25.0 |
% Change in WACC
|
-1%
|
-0.5%
|
8%
|
+0.50%
|
+1%
|
|||||||||||||||
Fair Value (less costs to sell)
|
44.2 | 41.6 | 39.3 | 37.1 | 35.1 |
% Change in WACC
|
-1%
|
-0.5%
|
8%
|
+0.50%
|
+1%
|
|||||||||||||||
Fair Value (less costs to sell)
|
35.2 | 33.1 | 31.3 | 29.6 | 28.0 |
3.1
|
Ormat Technologies, Inc.
|
3.2
|
Description of Subject Assets
|
|
·
|
Probability of 10MW Case: 70%;
|
|
·
|
Probability of 12MW Case: 30%.
|
|
·
|
Total nameplate capacity: 22.5 MW
;
|
|
·
|
Total gross output capacity: 19.0 MW
;
|
|
·
|
Total capacity net of Station Usage: 12.0 MW
.
|
4.1
|
General Economic Outlook
|
4.1.1
|
Introduction
|
4.1.2
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Economic Growth
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4.1.3
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Inflation
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4.1.4
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Unemployment
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4.1.5
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Interest Rate Environment and Global Economic Trends
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4.2
|
U.S. Geothermal Market Update
|
4.2.1
|
Introduction
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4.2.2
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Industry Growth Trends and Future Development
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4.2.3
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Federal Incentives and Drivers of Development
|
4.2.4
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Industry Outlook
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5.1
|
Valuation methodology
|
5.1.1
|
General
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5.2
|
Application of the Income Approach in this analysis
|
|
·
|
Determining operational characteristics of the Plant under two generation capacities (10MW and 12MW)
|
|
·
|
Forecasting revenues and variable operating costs as applicable, including energy prices for the electric output
|
|
·
|
Forecasting fixed expenses and capital expenditures as applicable for each case
|
|
·
|
Performing a DCF analysis for each generation case. The DCF for each generation case was then assigned a probability, based on the Company's estimates of its probability to materialize. The Fair Value was then calculated by summing the total weighted expected value of both cases.
|
5.3
|
Jersey Valley Valuation
|
|
5.3.1
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Operating Characteristics
|
|
5.3.2
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Production and Revenues
|
|
5.3.3
|
Production Penalties
|
|
5.3.4
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Operating Costs
|
|
5.3.5
|
Capital Expenditures
|
|
5.3.6
|
Depreciation
|
|
5.3.7
|
Tax
|
|
5.3.8
|
Working Capital
|
5.4
|
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital (WACC)
|
|
5.4.1
|
General
|
|
5.4.2
|
Cost of Equity
|
Risk Free Rate (nominal)
|
2.95 | % | 1 | |||||
Market Risk Premium
|
6.0 | % | 2 | |||||
Re-levered Beta
|
1.22 | 3 | ||||||
Risk Premium
|
1.88 | % | 4 | |||||
Cost of Equity
|
12.14 | % |
|
1.
|
The nominal rate of return on a US government bond
3
for a 30-year period.
|
|
2.
|
Average difference between the annual real return on stock indexes and the risk free interest in the U.S
4
.
|
|
3.
|
To determine the Company's beta, we examined a group of companies in the same field of business. We chose companies with similar features as the Company. Following is a list of peer companies used for calculating the beta
5
:
|
Company
|
Unlevered Beta
|
D/V | ||||||
Calpine Corp.
|
0.74 | 53 | % | |||||
Ram Power Corp.
|
0.44 | 75 | % | |||||
US Geothermal Inc.
|
0.48 | 76 | % | |||||
Alterra power corp.
|
0.86 | 53 | % | |||||
Ormat Technologies Inc.
|
0.70 | 52 | % | |||||
Median
|
0.70 | 53 | % |
|
4.
|
The specific risk premium, relevant to the size of the company in market of operation
6
.
|
|
5.4.3
|
WACC - Summary
|
Parameter
|
Value
|
Comments
|
||||||
Risk-free Rate
|
2.95 | % | ||||||
Relevered Beta
|
1.22 | 1 | ||||||
Market Risk Premium
|
6.0 | % | ||||||
Specific Risk Premium
|
1.9 | % | ||||||
The Cost of Equity
|
12.14 | % | ||||||
Cost of Debt
|
6.8 | % | 2 | |||||
Tax rate
|
35.0 | % | ||||||
D/V | 53 | % | 3 | |||||
WACC
|
8.0 | % | 4 |
|
1.
|
Re-levered beta based on the assumed D/E ratio and tax rate
|
|
2.
|
Based on the coupon rate set on the Company's bonds.
|
|
3.
|
The median Debt-to-Value ratio of comparable companies
|
|
4.
|
The WACC was rounded to 8%
|
5.5
|
Valuation Conclusion
|
5.5.1
|
Fair Value
|
Case
|
Probability weighted Valuation
|
Case Weighting
|
Expected Value
|
|||||||||
10MW Case
|
27,882 | 70.0 | % | 19,518 | ||||||||
12MW Case
|
39,258 | 30.0 | % | 11,777 | ||||||||
Total
|
100.0 | % | 31,295 |
5.5.2
|
Disposal Costs
|
5.5.3
|
Conclusion
|
5.5.4
|
Sensitivity Analysis
|
% Change in WACC
|
-1%
|
-0.5%
|
8%
|
+0.50%
|
+1%
|
|||||||||||||||
Fair Value (less costs to sell)
|
31.3 | 29.5 | 27.9 | 26.4 | 25.0 |
% Change in WACC
|
-1%
|
-0.5%
|
8%
|
+0.50%
|
+1%
|
|||||||||||||||
Fair Value (less costs to sell)
|
44.2 | 41.6 | 39.3 | 37.1 | 35.1 |
% Change in WACC
|
-1%
|
-0.5%
|
8%
|
+0.50%
|
+1%
|
|||||||||||||||
Fair Value (less costs to sell)
|
35.2 | 33.1 | 31.3 | 29.6 | 28.0 |
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
2024
|
2025
|
2026
|
2027
|
2028
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net Revenue
|
3,213 | 5,417 | 5,511 | 5,496 | 5,480 | 5,465 | 5,450 | 5,435 | 5,420 | 5,405 | 5,391 | 5,376 | 5,362 | 5,348 | 5,334 | 5,320 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total Operating Costs
|
2,117 | 2,217 | 2,134 | 2,256 | 2,171 | 2,300 | 2,213 | 2,349 | 2,261 | 2,404 | 2,314 | 2,464 | 2,371 | 2,529 | 2,434 | 2,600 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Depreciation
|
6,144 | 9,831 | 5,999 | 3,699 | 3,635 | 1,827 | 160 | 192 | 98 | 59 | 163 | 196 | 100 | 60 | 166 | 200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EBIT
|
(5,048 | ) | (6,631 | ) | (2,621 | ) | (459 | ) | (326 | ) | 1,338 | 3,077 | 2,894 | 3,061 | 2,943 | 2,915 | 2,717 | 2,891 | 2,759 | 2,734 | 2,521 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Income Tax
|
(1,767 | ) | (2,321 | ) | (917 | ) | (161 | ) | (114 | ) | 468 | 1,077 | 1,013 | 1,071 | 1,030 | 1,020 | 951 | 1,012 | 966 | 957 | 882 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
After Tax Operating Profit
|
(3,281 | ) | (4,310 | ) | (1,704 | ) | (298 | ) | (212 | ) | 870 | 2,000 | 1,881 | 1,990 | 1,913 | 1,894 | 1,766 | 1,879 | 1,793 | 1,777 | 1,638 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: (Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital
|
— | (137 | ) | (7 | ) | 10 | (7 | ) | 11 | (7 | ) | 11 | (7 | ) | 12 | (7 | ) | 13 | (8 | ) | 13 | (8 | ) | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Less: CapEx
|
(2,558 | ) | — | (500 | ) | — | — | — | (510 | ) | — | — | — | (520 | ) | — | — | — | (531 | ) | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: Depreciation
|
6,144 | 9,831 | 5,999 | 3,699 | 3,635 | 1,827 | 160 | 192 | 98 | 59 | 163 | 196 | 100 | 60 | 166 | 200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow from Operations
|
305 | 5,383 | 3,788 | 3,411 | 3,416 | 2,708 | 1,643 | 2,084 | 2,081 | 1,984 | 1,530 | 1,974 | 1,971 | 1,866 | 1,404 | 1,852 |
2029
|
2030
|
2031
|
2032
|
2033
|
2034
|
2035
|
2036
|
2037
|
2038
|
2039
|
2040
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net Revenue
|
5,306 | 5,293 | 5,279 | 5,266 | 7,165 | 7,164 | 7,163 | 7,163 | 7,162 | 7,161 | 7,161 | 7,160 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total Operating Costs
|
2,502 | 2,675 | 2,575 | 2,757 | 2,657 | 2,847 | 2,740 | 2,939 | 2,829 | 3,036 | 2,923 | 3,139 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Depreciation
|
102 | 61 | 169 | 204 | 104 | 62 | 173 | 208 | 106 | 64 | 627 | 32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EBIT
|
2,702 | 2,556 | 2,534 | 2,305 | 4,404 | 4,255 | 4,250 | 4,016 | 4,227 | 4,062 | 3,611 | 3,989 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Income Tax
|
946 | 895 | 887 | 807 | 1,541 | 1,489 | 1,488 | 1,406 | 1,480 | 1,422 | 1,264 | 1,396 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
After Tax Operating Profit
|
1,756 | 1,661 | 1,647 | 1,498 | 2,863 | 2,766 | 2,763 | 2,611 | 2,748 | 2,640 | 2,347 | 2,593 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: (Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital
|
(8 | ) | 14 | (8 | ) | 15 | (133 | ) | 16 | (9 | ) | 17 | (9 | ) | 17 | (9 | ) | 202 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Less: CapEx
|
— | — | (541 | ) | — | — | — | (552 | ) | — | — | — | (563 | ) | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: Depreciation
|
102 | 61 | 169 | 204 | 104 | 62 | 173 | 208 | 106 | 64 | 627 | 32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow from Operations
|
1,850 | 1,737 | 1,267 | 1,717 | 2,834 | 2,844 | 2,375 | 2,835 | 2,845 | 2,721 | 2,402 | 2,827 |
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
2024
|
2025
|
2026
|
2027
|
2028
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net Revenue
|
3,933 | 6,817 | 6,816 | 6,815 | 6,815 | 6,814 | 6,813 | 6,812 | 6,812 | 6,811 | 6,810 | 6,810 | 6,809 | 6,808 | 6,808 | 6,807 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total Operating Costs
|
2,117 | 2,220 | 2,136 | 2,258 | 2,173 | 2,302 | 2,216 | 2,352 | 2,263 | 2,406 | 2,316 | 2,466 | 2,374 | 2,532 | 2,437 | 2,602 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Depreciation
|
8,442 | 14,108 | 9,165 | 5,599 | 5,304 | 2,835 | 332 | 192 | 98 | 59 | 163 | 196 | 100 | 60 | 166 | 200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EBIT
|
(6,626 | ) | (9,511 | ) | (4,485 | ) | (1,042 | ) | (663 | ) | 1,677 | 4,265 | 4,269 | 4,451 | 4,346 | 4,332 | 4,148 | 4,335 | 4,217 | 4,205 | 4,005 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Income Tax
|
(2,319 | ) | (3,329 | ) | (1,570 | ) | (365 | ) | (232 | ) | 587 | 1,493 | 1,494 | 1,558 | 1,521 | 1,516 | 1,452 | 1,517 | 1,476 | 1,472 | 1,402 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
After Tax Operating Profit
|
(4,307 | ) | (6,182 | ) | (2,915 | ) | (677 | ) | (431 | ) | 1,090 | 2,772 | 2,775 | 2,893 | 2,825 | 2,816 | 2,696 | 2,818 | 2,741 | 2,733 | 2,603 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: (Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital
|
— | (232 | ) | (7 | ) | 10 | (7 | ) | 11 | (7 | ) | 11 | (7 | ) | 12 | (7 | ) | 13 | (8 | ) | 13 | (8 | ) | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Less: CapEx
|
(2,558 | ) | (3,000 | ) | (500 | ) | — | — | — | (510 | ) | — | — | — | (520 | ) | — | — | — | (531 | ) | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: Depreciation
|
8,442 | 14,108 | 9,165 | 5,599 | 5,304 | 2,835 | 332 | 192 | 98 | 59 | 163 | 196 | 100 | 60 | 166 | 200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow from Operations
|
1,577 | 4,694 | 5,742 | 4,932 | 4,866 | 3,935 | 2,587 | 2,978 | 2,983 | 2,896 | 2,451 | 2,904 | 2,910 | 2,814 | 2,361 | 2,817 |
2029
|
2030
|
2031
|
2032
|
2033
|
2034
|
2035
|
2036
|
2037
|
2038
|
2039
|
2040
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net Revenue
|
6,806 | 6,806 | 6,805 | 6,804 | 8,598 | 8,597 | 8,596 | 8,595 | 8,594 | 8,594 | 8,593 | 8,592 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total Operating Costs
|
2,505 | 2,678 | 2,578 | 2,759 | 2,660 | 2,850 | 2,744 | 2,942 | 2,832 | 3,039 | 2,926 | 3,142 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Depreciation
|
102 | 61 | 169 | 204 | 104 | 62 | 173 | 208 | 106 | 64 | 627 | 32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EBIT
|
4,200 | 4,067 | 4,058 | 3,841 | 5,834 | 5,685 | 5,680 | 5,446 | 5,656 | 5,491 | 5,040 | 5,418 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Income Tax
|
1,470 | 1,423 | 1,420 | 1,344 | 2,042 | 1,990 | 1,988 | 1,906 | 1,980 | 1,922 | 1,764 | 1,896 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
After Tax Operating Profit
|
2,730 | 2,643 | 2,637 | 2,497 | 3,792 | 3,695 | 3,692 | 3,540 | 3,677 | 3,569 | 3,276 | 3,522 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: (Increase)/Decrease in Working Capital
|
(8 | ) | 14 | (8 | ) | 15 | (158 | ) | 16 | (9 | ) | 17 | (9 | ) | 17 | (9 | ) | 321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Less: CapEx
|
— | — | (541 | ) | — | — | — | (552 | ) | — | — | — | (563 | ) | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plus: Depreciation
|
102 | 61 | 169 | 204 | 104 | 62 | 173 | 208 | 106 | 64 | 627 | 32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Free Cash Flow from Operations
|
2,824 | 2,719 | 2,257 | 2,716 | 3,738 | 3,773 | 3,304 | 3,764 | 3,774 | 3,650 | 3,330 | 3,874 |